The Problem Is Deeper Than You Think

It isn't the dollar amount. It's the formula.

The Unnoticed Gaps

There's plenty of research but few solutions.

No Systematic Framework

Current research emphasizes the importance of local assets and social capital but lacks systematic frameworks for matching communities to appropriate strategies.

No Comprehensive Solutions

Federal resource allocation studies consistently identify bureaucratic fragmentation and population-based criteria as barriers to effective rural development, yet few propose comprehensive solutions.

No Scalable Integration

Place-based development literature demonstrates the effectiveness of asset-driven approaches but has not been integrated with federal program structures or scaled beyond individual case studies.

The Paradox of Being Both "Rural" and "Not Rural"

Definition chaos = unintended, unpredictable, catastrophic consequences.

Cape Girardeau, MO

Classified as RURAL

(3 Programs Eligible)
USDA Business & Industry Loan
≤ 50,000 population, outside urbanized area
DOT Rural Surface Transportation
Outside UZAs with population ≥ 200,000
EDA Build to Scale
Outside Urbanized Areas (≥ 50,000 population)

Classified as URBAN

(5 Programs Ineligible)
Problem
USDA Community Facilities Loan
≤ 20,000 residents
EDA Public Works
< 15,000 population
HUD Rural Housing
< 2,500 population
EPA Small Water Systems
< 10,000 population
HRSA
• Non-metropolitan counties
• Outlying metro counties, no urban area > 50,000
• Census tracts with RUCA codes 4-10 in metro counties
• Census tracts ≥ 400 sq miles, density ≤ 35 people/sq mile with RUCA codes 2-3 in metro counties
• Census tracts with RRS 5 and RUCA codes 2-3 ≥ 20 sq miles in metro counties
300+
NOFO Pages Reviewed
13
Hours to Research

Communities like yours aren't just overlooked—they're structurally erased.

It's largely gone unnoticed for decades.

AI will either accelerate community decline or create generational opportunity.

Population in the U.S. is heavily skewed to metros

Federal funding decisions that use data in fat-tailed distributions* to allocate and award resources unintentionally cause unpredictable systematic failures.

*A fat-tailed distribution means rare events carry outsized consequences. When extremes do happen, their impact is far bigger than what a normal “bell curve” would predict.

Funding Challenge & Significance

Federal funding decisions assume a normal population distribution. Small places live in a fat-tailed one*.

Over $5,000,000,000,000
of the $6.3T U.S. federal funding allocation and awards are made using extreme uneven distribution as primary decision criteria causing systematic failures